Vendée Globe: The Cape Horn Dual Slalom?

The ice is reckoned to be drifting away at a rate of around 20 miles per day which, suggests Race Director Denis Horeau, means the problem is most serious for the first boats.

Horeau told Vendée Globe LIVE today:
“ CLS our partners have seen by satellite that there is ice drifting in the south and east of Cape Horn, but of course the problem is that the satellites can only see some of the ice, not all of it. So far we can only see ice by satellite which is at least 100 metres long. And so long as we know that there is ice of 100 metres long approximately then you can be sure that there will be some smaller bergs around. So that is our problem.”

“The choice is now with the skippers. We will inform them every day of the situation, what we can see with the satellites and what the drift is expected to be. So we will provide them with a report every day in order that they can understand the situation as well as we can see it.”

The bergs which are seen by the satellites are between 100m and 400m long, but the problem for the skippers is the smaller sections which almost certainly exist, some of which will be semi-submerged. 

By comparison there were significant levels of ice in the East Pacific during the last edition in 2008-9, much of it well before the longitude of Cape Horn. Then, the Pacific East gate was moved more than 400 miles to the north to keep the fleet as clear of danger as possible.

Closer
The two leaders are back in close contact with one another. After Francois Gabart took the lead again this morning, the 19th time that the baton has been exchanged between the Macif and Banque Populaire, the gap opened to six miles during the day but on the 1500hrs UTC ranking Gabart is only one mile ahead. The duration and closeness of their dual is on this race is largely unprecedented in solo ocean racing and there is an expectation that they can pass Cape Horn a matter of tens of minutes apart. What is perhaps most amazing is that the duo have had no significant, known breakdowns.

Jean-Pierre Dick, in third is in a much better place than he was on Christmas Eve. He will now feel much more in touch with the two leaders, who sail VPLP-Verdier designs which are very similar to his Virbac-Paprec 3. At 371 miles behind Macif this afternoon, JP should pass Cape Horn less than 24 hours behind. The gains which he has made over the last few days have not just stabilised but in fact he has lost some 30 miles now that Gabart and Le Cléac’h are back up making between 17 and 19kts this afternoon after their 48 hours slow down.

Thomson still finding it tough
All of the top trio are eagerly anticipating their safe passage from the Big South into the Atlantic. But all will have already previewed the weather expected in the South Atlantic and it is not looking very easy with a succession of low pressure systems set to spin off the South American continent.

That said the desire to get clear of the Pacific is equally shared further back down the fleet. Alex Thomson from Hugo Boss, in fourth at 895 miles behind the leader reported again how tough he is finding the conditions with big seas, and very gusty winds:
"I am very, very tired. I can not sleep, the wind is too unstable, I have to trim  the time, "he wrote this morning. And the same level of fatigue and stress is maybe getting to Jean Le Cam who also hade 30 knots and was under pressure during the Vendée Globe LIVE communication which he had to abandon temporarily to keep SynerCiel upright:
“It is hard, hard, hard.” Said Le Cam.
On this 49th day of racing, only Mike Golding (Gamesa) and Dominique Wavre (Mirabaud) have been in relatively comfortable conditions, on the southern edge of an anticyclone.